Martin Wolf suggests that present trends in the world economy will accelerate in the next 5 years. /FT, 16 December 2020/
He might be plainly wrong. The future is always disruptive, especially, when we rerun the first half of the 1940s /80ys cycle/, the first half of the 1970s /50ys cycle/ and the near 400ys cycle. The latter means that we globally follow the patterns of the first European 30ys war /1618-48/.
Besides, the present pandemic might repeat the pattern of the last century’s Spanish flu: three years, at least two waves.
We might have two radically different periods in the 2020s. Firstly, we will definitely bump into new and new constraints between 2020 and 2022. Secondly, we might have a roaring, dynamic period between 2023 and 2025.
Nothing will continue faster than before, everything will be disruptive.
Governor Matolcsy, MNB, the Central Bank of Hungary
Re “Five forces to define our post-Covid future”
